After spending the first two months of this year analyzing crime rates and attitudes about safety across the US, the new coronavirus has thrown me a big curveball. With COVID-19 impacting nearly every aspect of American life, there’s no question that crime and fears about crime are also going to be altered.
Whether or not you’re a fellow crime junkie, here’s a high-level overview of the most significant findings I’ve discovered so far about the relationship between crime and the coronavirus.
Is the Coronavirus Leading to an Increase in Crime?
With nearly a quarter of the US population on lockdown, it seems like a no-brainer that we’d see a dip in crime. But that’s not necessarily the case. Take a look at this roundup of crime trends happening across the nation.
New York City, New York
New York City is reporting a steady decrease in crime as the pandemic continues, although crime rates are attributed to many factors including controversial bail system reform in the state.
Highlights from a recent New York Post article are included below.
- The city saw a 26% increase in crime year over year during the first week of March.
- By the second week of March, there was a much smaller crime increase of 9% compared to last year.
- Car thefts are the property crime with the largest increase year over year (68%) and burglaries are next with 36%, compared to the second week in March last year.
- Homicides doubled year over year (from four to eight) and rape saw an increase of 18% compared to the same week in 2019.
- Hate crimes related to the coronavirus outbreak have also reared their ugly heads in the Big Apple.
“We’ve seen a downturn . . . as you see crowds disappearing on streets and other areas, that has translated to a decrease in crime.”
Dermot Shea, police commissioner, told the New York Post
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Violent crime is seeing a big jump in Philadelphia, even with the coronavirus shutting down much of the city. But officials aren’t attributing the jump to the virus.
Specific statistics from a recent article in The Philadelphia Inquirer shed more light below.
- As of March 20, the city reported 86 murders year to date, compared to 66 during the same period in 2019. That’s a 30% jump year over year.
- During the city’s first week of school closures, the Philadelphia Police Department saw nine shootings, three homicides, three stabbings, and one police-involved shooting.
- The city is joining many others across the country that are stopping arrests for drug offenses and other non-violent crimes like theft and vandalism. The tactic aims to reduce coronavirus spread in crowded jails.
“I don’t think that anybody who is out there gang-banging or shooting or robbing feels one way or another about the coronavirus. In fact, they may see this as an ‘opportune time’ to commit crime.”
Dorothy Johnson Speight, founder of Mother in Charge, told The Philadelphia Inquirer
Memphis, Tennessee
Memphis has seen a decline in violent crime since the area saw its first positive tests for the coronavirus. Fox 13 in Memphis shared some encouraging numbers that are highlighted below.
- In the first two weeks of March, the city reported 243 violent crimes.
- Between January 28 and February 28, Memphis had 611 violent crimes.
- If that trend continues, the city’s violent crime rate in March could be nearly half what it was in February.
“We’ve seen Memphis rated as the number two city in donations and community involvement. Hopefully that will continue to be a big push from what we’ve seen on the crime side.”
Jerry Rosser, Memphis resident, said to WHBQ-TV Fox 13
Chicago, Illinois
It’s business-as-usual for violent crime in Chicago, despite a statewide stay-at-home order. A Chicago Sun-Times report detailed a number of shootings that happened this weekend on the city’s south and west sides. Find out more below.
- 10 people were shot over the weekend, resulting in one death.
- Last year on the same weekend there were also 10 shootings, resulting in four deaths.
- At least one of the shootings happened before the governor’s order went into effect at 5:00 p.m. Saturday.
- City police officers haven’t been directed to cite or arrest people who violate the statewide order to stay at home. But people who defy multiple warnings or “get physical” with officers may be subject to citations and/or arrest.
“We are not trying to make this a police issue. This is very much a public health issue. In order to stop the spread of this virus, we’ve got to contain it.”
Anthony Gugielmi, police spokesman, told the Chicago Sun-Times
More Ways the Coronavirus is Impacting Crime
- A Barberton Municipal Court Judge in Ohio reported an increase in domestic violence cases as people are asked to stay home.
- A Massachusetts woman faces charges in China for spreading the virus.
- Oklahoma has outlawed price gouging in the wake of shortages on essentials like toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
- The Los Angeles Police Department is asking citizens to report non-emergency crimes on an online portal instead of calling dispatch or 911.
- California, Florida, New York, and Ohio are releasing non-violent offenders to reduce prison populations and minimize risk of transmitting the coronavirus.
- Robbers wearing medical masks have struck in several US cities, including Boston, Massachusetts, Queens, New York, and Smyrna, Georgia. (Smyrna was named the 39th safest city in Georgia in our 2020 report.)
- Police in the cities of Denver and Aurora, Colorado are no longer sending officers in response to crimes where no one is in immediate danger.
- The coronavirus doesn’t seem to be impacting mass shootings. As of March 23, the Gun Violence Archive recorded 20 mass shooting incidents for the month. February saw 21, and there were 25 in January.
Should I Be More Worried about Crime during the Pandemic?
In such an unsettled time, it’s hard not to be worried about everything. My hometown of Salt Lake City, Utah got the bonus of an earthquake last week—and it’s the gift that keeps on giving. We got a 4.0 aftershock during dinner Sunday night, but I made it safely under the table with nary a drop of wine spilled.
Adding crime and safety to this already heady mix doesn’t help.
But even though it seems like there may be upticks in some crimes or certain cities, the overall trend seems to indicate a decrease in crime in general. As more time passes, we’ll be far better equipped to gauge the pandemic’s impact on the nation’s criminal justice system.
For now, I think it’s important to focus on the things we can control (like making sure my wine made it safely under the dining room table with me) and avoid seeking out new things to stress over.
There’s also some indication that this time of crisis is appealing to most people’s better nature.
After California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a statewide shelter-in-place order, he told CNN,
“There’s a social contract here. People, I think, recognize the need to do more and to meet this moment. People will self-regulate their behavior.”
His optimism has a basis in science. Studies show that people, in general, prefer to do the right thing—simply because it aligns with their morality. Not because they fear inequality or some kind of punishment.
In the midst of everything that’s happening (and while I’m relegated to my 940-square-foot apartment), I’m going to take that as a good sign.
That doesn’t mean I won’t be worried about the next shake-up or obsessed with watching criminal activity in the time of coronavirus, but it helps me keep some perspective.
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